Preference aggregation and atoms in measures

This paper examines the aggregation of preferences with a finitely additive measure space of agents. We consider three types of non-dictatorship axioms: non-dictatorship, coalitional non-dictatorship, and atomic non-dictatorship. First, we show that the existence of an atom is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a social welfare function that satisfies weak Pareto, independence of irrelevant alternatives, and coalitional non-dictatorship. Second, we simultaneously impose non-dictatorship and coalitional non-dictatorship, and specify a necessary and sufficient condition for the finitely additive measure that guarantees the compatibility among the axioms. Third, we impose all non-dictatorship axioms and show that the corresponding measure is extremely restricted.     

Insider perspectives on growth: Implications for a nondichotomous understanding of ‘sustainable’ and conventional entrepreneurship

The aim of this paper is to offer an alternative to a priori theorising in research on firm-level growth and environmental sustainability. We outline an approach that combines John Shotter's phenomenology with post-hoc application of the Bourdieusian concepts of habitus, practices and social capital. This is illustrated empirically through a study conducted with a small group of Finnish entrepreneurs, which examines their lived experience of growth alongside its practical application in their ventures. The entrepreneurs' responses reveal holistic perspectives on growth that extend beyond the economic to incorporate personal commitments to norms of collectivity and well-being for themselves and others. The paper offers an exploratory but empirically grounded approach, arguing that a combination of insiders' perspectives and attention to the social embedding of economic activity challenge the dichotomous distinctions between sustainable and conventional entrepreneurship and reveal a degree of commonality that would not be evident via conventional categorisations on the basis of features such as business model type.     

农民收入结构变化对农民种粮积极性的影响——基于粮食主产区与主销区的对比分析

本文基于1993—2017年中国粮食主产区和主销区的面板数据,在比较两个区域农民收入及其结构变化的基础上,使用面板矫正标准误(PCSE)和面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型实证研究并比较主产区和主销区农民收入结构变化对农民种粮积极性的短期和长期影响。结果表明:无论从短期还是从长期来看,对于主产区而言,工资性收入和政策变量对粮播比有显著的负向影响,家庭经营性收入、转移性收入对其有显著正向影响,而财产性收入对其影响不显著。对于主销区而言,家庭经营性收入、转移性收入和财产性收入对粮播比的影响方向与主产区相同,但是工资性收入对其影响与主产区不同,有显著正向影响,政策变量的影响不显著。在长期,工资性收入对主产区和主销区粮播比的影响程度逐渐增加,经营性收入与财产性收入对主产区的影响更大,而转移性收入对主销区的影响更大。因此,在粮食播种面积连续3年下降的背景下,需要进一步优化农业补贴政策,转变粮食生产方式,鼓励主销区增加粮食播种面积,建立多层次农业保险体系。     

Trump’s Effect on the Chinese Stock Market

U.S. President Donald J. Trump tweets frequently to communicate his thoughts to the public. We quantitatively evaluate the impact of Trump's China-related tweets on the Chinese stock market. We find that following Trump’s inauguration, his tweets with a positive sentiment significantly increase abnormal returns for the manufacturing industry in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, an increase in the absolute value of his positive sentiment increases both the trading volume and volatility of the market. The positive effect is more pronounced for those subindustries with high exposure to international trade and stronger business relations with the United States than for other subindustries. The results are robust for various sensitivity tests.     

International stock return predictability

We propose a new methodology for predicting international stock returns. Our Bayesian framework performs probabilistic selection of predictors that can shift at multiple unknown structural break dates. The approach generates significantly more accurate forecasts of international stock returns than a range of popular models that are economically meaningful for a risk-averse mean–variance investor. Allowing for regime-specific variable selection reduces considerably the international diversification of an unhedged U.S. investor’s portfolio.     

财税政策、工农业分工与农业生产率——理论分析与经验证据

本文基于动态分工演进,以自给自足的自然经济为起点,将秩序服务和财税政策纳入一个理论框架,结合超边际决策分析和一般均衡分析,考察在此过程中各个经济人的最优决策在市场上相互作用而内生的各种变化,揭示了财税政策作用于工农业分工和农业生产率的内在机制。然后,使用中国改革开放以来的数据对相关结论进行实证检验。模型分析表明,政府财税政策的实施在促进工农业分工水平提高的情况下,会扩大粮食生产的迂回化经济程度,进而推动粮食部门的农地生产率提升。就长期而言,单位面积的财政支农支出对农地生产率的提高有显著正向影响,在其他农业生产要素既定情况下,单位面积的财政支农支出每增加1%,农地生产率增加3.23%;从短期来看,单位面积财政支农支出对农地生产率的作用较弱,但在反向修正机制的作用下,最终会达到有效提高农地生产率的长期稳定均衡。另外,财政支农支出的增加促进了分工水平的提高,而分工水平的提高又推动了农业生产率的提升。     

Design of Digital Agricultural Extension Tools: Perspectives from Extension Agents in Nigeria

Given the marked heterogeneous conditions in smallholder agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is a growing policy interest in site-specific extension advice and the use of digital extension tools to provide site-specific information. Empirical ex-ante studies on the design of digital extension tools and their use are rare. Using data from a choice experiment in Nigeria, we elicit and analyze the preferences of extension agents for major design features of ICT-enabled decision support tools (DSTs) aimed at site-specific nutrient management extension advice. We estimate different models, including mixed logit, latent class and attribute non-attendance models. We find that extension agents are generally willing to use such DSTs and prefer a DST with a more user-friendly interface that requires less time to generate results. We also find that preferences are heterogeneous: some extension agents care more about the effectiveness-related features of DSTs, such as information accuracy and level of detail, while others prioritise practical features, such as tool platform, language and interface ease-of-use. Recognising and accommodating such preference differences may facilitate the adoption of DSTs by extension agents and thus enhance the scope for such tools to impact the agricultural production decisions of farmers.     

基于社区参与的乡村全域旅游开发实证研究——以南昌南矶乡为例

[目的]全域旅游发展理念的提出进一步丰富和提升了社区参与旅游发展的内涵,文章从全域旅游视角研究社区参与式乡村旅游的开发模式,以期为乡村全域旅游的发展提供参考与借鉴。[方法]通过实地考察和资料查阅法,了解南矶旅游开发及社区参与的现状,结合实证分析法,构建基于社区参与的南矶乡村全域旅游开发模式。[结果](1)目前南矶乡村旅游尚处于发展初期,当地居民对参与旅游发展的意愿比较强烈,但参与的水平与能力都较低,湿地资源作为当地社区福祉的根本同时也是主要的旅游吸引物,当地旅游开发应将社区作为核心利益群体;(2)提出政府、保护区、旅游发展协会、旅游企业和当地社区“五位一体”的社区参与式乡村全域旅游开发模式,并从旅游功能分区、旅游开发经营、产品开发、收益分配和环境保护等5个方面重点论述了该模式的实施途径,以形成以股份合作制为主、社区居民自发旅游和乡村旅游创客等多种旅游开发经营形式共同发展的格局,推出融湿地生态旅游和乡村旅游的产品体系。[结论]该文所构建的乡村全域旅游开发模式将社区参与作为一个实质性要素,强调区域资源有机整合、产业融合发展和社会共建共享,并兼顾旅游开发和生态保护,这将有利于全方位盘活社区资源和带动当地居民就业增收,实现旅游业与社区共生发展,因此这种开发模式比较适合于那些经济基础比较薄弱而旅游业尚处于发展初期且位于自然保护区及其周边的乡村地区进行旅游发展。     

Capitalization of land development rights in rural China: A choice experiment on individuals’ preferences in peri-urban Shanghai

The capitalization of land development rights is acknowledged as the key to improving compensations for rural landholders and ameliorating land-related social conflicts in peri-urban China. Investigations into reasonable as well as feasible compensation standards and the capitalization mechanism are yet to be done. This study uses a survey-based choice experiment to empirically estimate the value of land development rights in peri-urban Shanghai for three forms of rural land conversion – acquisition, consolidation and (informal) sale. The results show that heterogeneity across individuals’ preferences translates into different utilities from land development, which affects individual’s willingness to participate in this process. This effect is found to be the strongest for land sales on the informal market. If, however, land conversion is managed by local governments and rural collectives, the expected utilities of individuals have no significant effect on the amount of land development. The results suggest that capitalizing land development rights under consideration of land attributes and individuals’ preferences would lift compensation standard to a level that strikes a balance among competing land-related interests. In addition, it would promote China’s land development by bypassing the institutional constraints imposed by the current land tenure system.     

新冠肺炎疫情、金融市场震荡与金融危机

新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情在全球快速蔓延后,美国等国家金融市场出现大幅度震荡,历史罕见。金融市场震荡是疫情影响投资者信心,金融市场本身的风险需要释放,以及经济基本面悲观预期等因素共同作用的结果。目前来看,疫情对实体经济造成冲击,疫情应对情况也在很大程度上决定了金融市场震荡是否演化为全球金融危机,国外金融市场震荡对国内金融市场的传导需要审慎理性处理。